The Silent Snag of Satelites: The Kessler Syndrome
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What if our desire for space exploration actually becomes the reason we can’t?
Have you ever wondered: What really happens when 2 satellites collide? They don’t explode and disappear like how we see them in Star Wars or Geostorm (2017), they shatter into thousands of pieces in a matter of seconds, each flying at shocking speeds up to around Mach 22.68.
So what is this “Kessler Syndrome”?
The Kessler Syndrome has a "muddy" definition, not being found in the English dictionary. However, it has a significant presence, often appearing in NASA and other academic articles such as ‘Science’ The Kessler Syndrome theory was presented in 1978 by NASA scientist Donald J. Kessler, suggesting that a critical amount of satellites and space waste can cause a chain reaction where collisions release more debris in all directions, thus causing even more collisions until orbits are completely unusable, potentially causing space launches to be near impossible in the future.
What supports this theory?
There are several factors which can contribute to this:
Average satellites have a lifespan of 10 to 15 years, which need to be regularly replaced because of external wear (e.g., solar radiation, extreme temperatures), internal failures (e.g., hardware failure, fuel shortages), and launch issues (e.g., orbit misplacement).
Insufficient regulation and management regarding space waste management, as there is no comprehensive international law discussing this, causing satellites to be left in orbit
Anti-satellite tests conducted by militaries around the world involve firing high speed weapons at satellites in space, shattering them into many fragments .
With these factors in mind, the risk of the Kessler Syndrome coming to life grows exponentially with each year that no action is taken.
Is the Kessler Syndrome even realistic?
Take a look at Figure 2 below, where dozens of dotted lines are illustrated overlapping each other. Each dash in each line isn’t a star; They are all satellites, flying in orbits that cross each other, with over 100,000,000 space objects (<1 mm) and 140,000,000 debris particles (between 1mm ~ 1cm) known to be orbiting our planet at once. Due to a phenomenon called “hypervelocity impact”, even particles that cannot be seen by our eyes can be destructive. These particles travel at speeds up to 28,000 km/h, and without anything standing against them (absence of air resistance + undetectable by radar or technology), a single piece of junk the size of a softball can destroy a satellite worth several hundred million US dollars. According to the KESSYM debris model developed in 2023, without significant efforts and improvements, a Kessler Syndrome effect in the LEO (Low Earth Orbit) within the next 2 and a half centuries will become “non-negligible”.
Why do we need to know this? Why does it even matter?
Scientists and astrophysicists are more concerned with the fallout in the chain reaction followed by the Kessler syndrome, not the Kessler syndrome itself. The theorised stages of this chain reaction are as below:
Tipover point – Debris fragments reach a certain point where satellites and space waste are in an extremely dense orbit, with a collision starting the chain reaction.
Secondary damage – The fragments from the 1st stage hit nearby satellites, with this crash launching fragments in a domino-like effect. During this stage, collisions happen by the second, with debris flying in all directions like a spider web.
Orbits become cages – Certain altitudes become so dangerous for space operations/launches, that space agencies give up sending satellites and astronauts at or past that altitude.
Point of no functioning satellites - The continued destruction of satellites without replacement will lead to the failure of communication systems, weather patterns & disasters being unable to be tracked, and GPS being rendered blank white.
Economic and Scientific Fallout – A majority of the modern world relies on digitally stored information and programs. Once satellites are down, stock markets will evaporate, and social order will be replaced with survival instincts. Leading to social unrest, robbery and violence for basic necessities. The planet will basically be rebooted back to the Stone Age.
Should we bring back the satellites from our orbit?
The process of satellite retrieval is significantly more costly than launching a brand new one, followed by costs for specialised retrieval equipment, personnel and vehicles. An example being when NASA launched the STS-51-A mission in 1984 to launch 2 satellites and retrieve 2 malfunctioning satellites. It cost approximately $450 million USD at the time, which is worth 1.4 billion US dollars in today’s value. This shows that while satellite retrieval is possible, using such methods to remove man-made space debris will cost a fortune.
Why does this even matter?
Although the Kessler syndrome is just a theory, it is still plausible enough to pose a threat to humanity. Whether you are a space-lover or simply a person who uses their phone, this theory might be worth keeping somewhere in the back of your mind, because one day, it could be the very reason you can’t play your next clash royale game.
Reference List
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Wattles, J. (2024, December 27). Kessler Syndrome: Space junk is clouding Earth’s orbit. Is it past the point of no return? CNN. Retrieved August 29, 2025, from https://edition.cnn.com/2024/12/27/science/space-junk-earth-kessler-syndrome/index.html
Williams, A. (2024, December 27). What is Kessler Syndrome and the potential consequences for Earth of growing space debris? LiveNOW from FOX. Retrieved September 1, 2025, from https://www.fox9.com/news/space-junk-risks-2025
European Space Agency. (n.d.). The Kessler Effect and how to stop it. European Space Agency. Retrieved October 8, 2025, from https://www.esa.int/Enabling_Support/Space_Engineering_Technology/The_Kessler_Effect_and_how_to_stop_it
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